Tuesday, January 8, 2013

How does the modeler know the engineering works?

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Without some form of confirmed performance, the modeler needs to rely on a SME (Subject Matter Expert) to judgmentally validate the inferred performance. The primary way to do this with acquisition models (underwriting decisions for credit) is to compare the Accept/Reject decision using the model to the historical A/R patterns. If the model decisions are an improvement (judgmentally) over the traditional A/R pattern then the inference passes this test. Of course, the inferred model should still perform well on the known accounts, but not necessarily better than some known metric.

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